配电设备实时故障风险评估方法

现有配电设备故障风险评估方法在因素分析方面不够全面,未能综合考虑天气等环境因素与设备健康状态因素对设备故障风险的影响,且数据来源主要为长期历史数据,缺乏时效性。为解决此问题,本文提出了一种配电设备实时故障风险评估方法,结合天气状况、设备状态两大因素计算配电设备实时故障概率,通过负荷损失量、停电用户数量、负荷重要等级三个因素评估配电设备故障影响程度,并以设备故障概率和故障影响程度为准则建立风险评估模型。通过IEEE-RBTS BUS2算例分析,证明该模型能够有效评估配电设备实时故障风险,对于电力企业优化设备检修工作,提升应急管理水平具有重要的指导意义。

Real-time Fault Risk Assessment Method for Power Distribution Equipment

The previous fault risk assessments of power distribution equipment are not comprehensive enough in factor analysis, failing to fully consider the impacts of environmental factors such as weather and equipment health status on the risk of equipment fault. Moreover, the data is mainly derived from long-term historical data, which lacks pertinence and timeliness. To solve this, this paper proposes a real-time fault risk assessment method for power distribution equipment. Firstly, the real-time fault probability of power distribution equipment is calculated combining both the weather conditions and equipment status. And then the impacts of faults on distribution equipment are evaluated through three factors: load loss, number of power outages, and load rating. Finally, a risk assessment model is established based on the fault probability and degree of impacts. In this study, the case of IEEE-RBTS BUS2 is analyzed and presented and the results prove that this method can effectively evaluate the real-time fault risk of power distribution equipment. Overall, it provides a new perspective to optimize equipment maintenance and has important significance of improving emergency management for power companies.