铁路应急设施非概率可靠性选址优化研究

为解决小样本、贫信息下铁路应急资源储备点的可靠性选址问题，创新性地将选址-路径问题与区间非概率可靠性方法结合起来，考虑灾情发生后应急设施点在可接受的时间范围内响应受灾点的需求能力及其稳定程度，采用区间值度量路段阻抗，基于区间非概率可靠性理论及区间运算规则，提出路径的非概率可靠性度量及可靠最短路径选择方法；建立基于区间时间阻抗下可靠最短路径的无容量设施选址模型，提出约束条件限制的Monte Carlo改进算法，确定了铁路资源储备点选址的最优方案。实例表明，本文的优化方案能更好地保证救援的时间可靠性，改进的求解算法具有更小的时间复杂度，有效地缩短了运算时间，改善了解的质量。本文的方法与模型体系对于实现铁路应急设施可靠性选址，为决策者提供决策支持，提高铁路应急响应能力具有重要的指导意义。

Railway Emergency Facility Location Optimization Based on Non-probabilistic Reliability Theory

In order to effectively solve the allocation reliability problem for railway emergency resource reserve under small sample and poor information, innovatively combine the location-routing problem with interval non-probabilistic reliability method, considering the ability and stability of the emergency facilities to respond to the needs of the emergency points within an acceptable time frame after the disaster, by using interval value for road impedance, based on the non-probabilistic reliability theory and interval algorithm, the method of path non-probabilistic reliability measure and selection is put forward. The uncapacitated facility location model based on reliable shortest path of interval impedance is built, and the improved Monte Carlo algorithm under the constraint conditions limit is presented. Also, the optimal scheme of railway resource reserve location is determined. The example shows that the optimization scheme in this paper can better guarantee the time reliability of rescue, and the improved algorithm has smaller time complexity. It effectively shortens the operation time and improves the solution quality. The method and model system in this paper are of important guiding significance for realizing the reliability of railway emergency facilities location, providing decision support for decision makers and improving the emergency response capacity of railway.