PPP模式下地方财政承受能力研究——以四川省为样本

本文选取财政部PPP项目管理库中四川省项目数据，利用单整自回归移动平均模型预测了2020～2025年四川省21个地市(州)的一般公共预算支出，以此来评估现有PPP模式下各地的财政承受能力。研究表明：有2个地级市突破了10%的“红线”,7个地级市超过了7%的“警戒线”,其他12个地市(州)财政支出能力良好；PPP项目的行业和领域相对集中，且各地城市呈现不同的行业投资结构。最后从三个方面提出政策建议：依据各地不同的财政承受能力来推动PPP规范发展、逐渐重视PPP项目行业和领域平衡性评估及完善PPP项目财政支出责任监测预警系统。本研究有助于增强PPP项目财政承受能力评估的科学性和谨慎性，对今后地方政府选择和确定PPP项目及规模具有启示意义。

A Study on Financial Capacity under the PPP Mode: A Case on Sichuan Province

Employing the data of Sichuan province that has entered the China Public Private Partnerships Center Management Database of the Ministry of Finance, this paper forecasts the general public budget expenditure of prefecture-level cities (autonomous prefectures) and cities (prefectures) in 2020~2025 by using the autoregressive integrated moving average model, and then evaluates whether the fiscal capacity of cities and states will touch the “10%” line with the existing PPP projects. The results show that there are two prefecture-level cities exceeding the “red line” of 10%, seven surpassing the “warning line” of 7%, and other twelve (includingautonomous prefectures) possessing good fiscal spending capacity. The industries and fields of PPP project are relatively concentrated, and various industrial investment structures are presented in different cities. Finally, some suggestions are put forward from three aspects: promoting the PPP projects according to the different fiscal capacity of the local economy, evaluating PPP projects considering distributions of the industries and fields, and optimizing monitoring as well as the early warning system of fiscal expenditure responsibility of PPP projects. This study helps to justify the argument about the financial affordability of PPP projects, and helps the government screen and determine the PPP projects and evaluate their scale scientifically and reasonably.