气候变化对河南省小麦产量影响分析

为探明气候变化对河南省小麦产量的影响,利用1951—2005河南省气候资料和小麦产量资料,对小麦产量和小麦生育期内气候值及其变化规律进行分析,并将气候值与小麦产量值分别做相关和响应分析.结果表明,河南省小麦生育期内日照时数呈逐渐减少趋势,而积温则逐渐增高,降水变化不明显;小麦生育前期气候变化较缓,后期气候变化较快,小麦产量波动与气候变化有较大一致性;气候变化对小麦产量的影响主要是积温的影响,日照时数和降水对小麦产量的影响则不明显;日照时数和积温与小麦产量一定程度内呈正相关,而降水量与小麦产量则基本呈负相关.

Analysis of the Influences on Wheat Yield by Climate Change in Henan

In order to clarify the influences of climate change on wheat yield in Henan,the climate data and materials on wheat yield for 54 years after P.R.China founded were used to analyses the relationship between climate change and wheat yield and the discipline of it,the results showed that the hours of sunshine was decreasing during the growth of wheat in Henan,while the accumulative temperature was gradually increased,and the precipitation changed a little;At the early stage of 54 years,climate changed smoothly,while at the late stage,it changed significantly,and change of climate and wheat yield had more consistency;and the major factor of climate which influence on wheat yield change was accumulative temperature,while hours of sunshine and precipitation were the minor factor which affected the wheat yield.Futhermore,we concluded that hours of sunshine and accumulative temperature were positively correlated with the wheat yield to a certain extent,while the precipitation has negative correlation.