首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      


Applying Hybrid ARIMA-SGARCH in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on S&P500 Index
Authors:Nguyen Vo  Robert lepaczuk
Institution:1.Quantitative Finance Research Group, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Ul. Długa 44/50, 00-241 Warsaw, Poland;2.Quantitative Finance Research Group, Department of Quantitative Finance, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Ul. Długa 44/50, 00-241 Warsaw, Poland
Abstract:This research aims to compare the performance of ARIMA as a linear model with that of the combination of ARIMA and GARCH family models to forecast S&P500 log returns in order to construct algorithmic investment strategies on this index. We used the data collected from Yahoo Finance with daily frequency for the period from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2019. By using a rolling window approach, we compared ARIMA with the hybrid models to examine whether hybrid ARIMA-SGARCH and ARIMA-EGARCH can really reflect the specific time-series characteristics and have better predictive power than the simple ARIMA model. In order to assess the precision and quality of these models in forecasting, we compared their equity lines, their forecasting error metrics (MAE, MAPE, RMSE, MAPE), and their performance metrics (annualized return compounded, annualized standard deviation, maximum drawdown, information ratio, and adjusted information ratio). The main contribution of this research is to show that the hybrid models outperform ARIMA and the benchmark (Buy&Hold strategy on S&P500 index) over the long term. These results are not sensitive to varying window sizes, the type of distribution, and the type of the GARCH model.
Keywords:algorithmic investment strategies  ARIMA  ARIMA-SGARCH  ARIMA-EGARCH  hybrid model  stock returns forecast  model robustness  sensitivity analysis
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号