灰色关联分析在中国交通事故综合评价中的应用

利用数学软件M ATLAB制作了一个多元灰色关联分析工具箱,并用该工具箱对1997~2006年中国31个地区交通事故统计数据进行多元灰色关联分析,从18个社会经济因素中找出了对交通事故指标影响关系最为密切的几个社会经济因素,并对中国31个地区10年交通事故危害程度作综合评价.研究表明:各地区"生产总值"及"旅客周转量"等社会因素对交通事故四个指标(发生起数、死亡人数、受伤人数和损失折款)影响最大;多考虑"生产总值"及"旅客周转量"两个指标对31个地区的交通事故危害程度的综合评价,比仅仅考虑四个交通事故指标的综合评价,结果更为合理;1997~2006年中国交通事故最为严重的前3个地区为:广东、浙江、福建.研究结果可供交通管理部门参考.

Application of Grey Relational Analysis on Comprehensive Evaluation about China Traffic Accidents

A toolbox in the relational analysis of multivariate-grey is made by using MATLAB, and it is applied to make a relational analysis of multivariate-grey in the data statistics collected from 31 regions in China between 1997 and 2006. Several socioeconomic factors most closely connected with traffic accident index are found among the 18 socioeconomic factors. This paper comprehensively evaluates the risk degrees of traffic accidents happened about 31 regions in China from 1997 to 2006. The research suggests that social factors such as "total output value" and "passenger turnover" in every region has the greatest impact'on the four index--accident occurrence, deaths, casualties, and loss. The comprehensive evaluation on the risk degrees of traffic accidents in 31 regions by taking into account of "total output value" and "passenger turnover" is more reasonable than by only the four traffic accident factors. It can be concluded that the most serious traffic accidents happen in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian. The result of the research can be offered for reference for traffic management departments.