A case-based fuzzy multicriteria decision support model for tropical cyclone forecasting

This paper proposes a multi-stage framework for intelligent decision support. The proposed framework integrates case-based reasoning and fuzzy multicriteria decision making techniques. It potentially leads to more accurate, flexible and efficient retrieval of alternatives that are most similar and most useful to the current decision situation. Additionally, the framework provides intelligent assistance in articulating domain expert's preferences through outranking relations. We illustrated the proposed approach in the context of tropical cyclone prediction. Ten years of historical observation data about tropical cyclones was represented within fuzzy multicriteria decision-making problem. We describe a prototype intelligent decision support system, which helps the forecaster in retrieving best-fitted solutions in terms of both usefulness and similarity to the current observed case.