Escape rates in periodically driven Markov processes

We present an approximate analytical expression for escape rates of time-dependent driven stochastic processes with an absorbing boundary such as the driven leaky integrate-and-fire model for neural spiking. The novel approximation is based on a discrete state Markovian modeling of the full long-time dynamics with time-dependent rates. It is valid in a wide parameter regime beyond the restraining limits of weak driving (linear response) and/or weak noise. The scheme is carefully tested and yields excellent agreement with three different numerical methods based on the Langevin equation, the Fokker–Planck equation and an integral equation.