A Markovian Goal Programming Approach to Aggregate Manpower Planning

The combination of a manpower supply model (a Markov type model based on historical probabilities of losses, promotions and gains) and goal programming with preemptive priorities provides a useful tool for developing a future year manpower plan under conflicting socio-econo-organizational objectives. Successful utilization requires a close management involvement in adjusting probabilities and specifying goals, priorities and impending policy changes. Such an approach is presented in this paper and illustrated by means of an industrial case study example. The presentation is kept simple, yet detailed and unified, so that is is easily understood by practitioners and students of operational research/management science.