| SARS传播的数学模型的建立与分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄良英,邱修峰,周昌隆.SARS传播的数学模型的建立与分析[J].南昌大学学报(理科版),2005,29(4):348-352. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄良英 邱修峰 周昌隆 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省机械职工大学计算机系,江西,南昌,330001;赣南师范学院数学与计算机系,江西,赣州,341000 |
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| 摘 要： | 建立一个SARS传播的实用的、可求解的改进SIR模型，并用差分方法进行求解。利用北京SARS病例数据对模型验证表明，拟合曲线与实际数据基本吻合，平均相对绝对值误差为0．0153。对隔离时机的提前或延后造成的后果进行数值分析，可得出最终确诊病例累计数与隔离时机的延长或提前呈指数增长或下降的结论。
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| 关 键 词： | 改进的SIR模型 拟合曲线 SARS |
| 文章编号： | 1006-0464（2005）04-0348-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-03-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年3月20日 |
ANALYSIS AND CONSTRUCTION OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL ON THE SPREAD OF SARS |
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| HUANG Liang-ying,QIU Xiu-feng,ZHOU Chang-long.ANALYSIS AND CONSTRUCTION OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL ON THE SPREAD OF SARS[J].Journal of Nanchang University(Natural Science),2005,29(4):348-352. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Liang-ying QIU Xiu-feng ZHOU Chang-long |
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| Abstract: | To construct a useful improved SIR model of SARS that is solvable with the present information and the difference methods. The curl is the same as the factual data , and the error estimation average absolute value is only 0.0153 when it was verify using the data from BeiJing. In this paper to analyze the forward and backward result of the separation timing and find that the final definite number of sure patients increases or decreases with the backward or forward separation timing at the exponent level. |
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| Keywords: | improved SIR model analogous curve SARS |
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