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A novel two-factor forecasting model for fuzzy time series |
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| Authors: | Sheng-Tun Li Su-Yu Lin Yi-Chung Cheng |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Information Management, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan
Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan;2. Institute of Information Management, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan;3. Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan Department of International Business Management, Tainan University of Technology, Taiwan |
| Abstract: | The study of fuzzy time series has increasingly attracted much attention due to its salient capabilities of tackling vague and incomplete data. A variety of forecasting models have devoted to improving forecasting accuracy, however, the issue of partitioning intervals has rarely been investigated. Recently, we proposed a novel deterministic forecasting model to eliminate the major overhead of determining the k-order issue in high-order models. This paper presents a continued work with focusing on handling the interval partitioning issue by applying the fuzzy c-means technology, which can take the distribution of data points into account and produce unequal-sized intervals. In addition, the forecasting model is extended to allow process twofactor problems. The accuracy superiority of the proposed model is demonstrated by conducting two empirical experiments and comparison to other existing models. The reliability of the forecasting model is further justified by using a Monte Carlo simulation and box plots. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) |
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