基于模糊综合评价模型的赣州市水资源承载力动态评价

水资源的合理利用对区域经济社会发展以及促进人与自然的可持续发展至关重要.通过构建模糊综合评价模型,选取年降水量、人均水资源量、水资源利用率、万元GDP用水量、万元工业增加值用水量、农田灌溉亩均用水量、生态用水等7个指标对赣州市2009-2018年水资源承载力进行动态评价研究,分析近十年该地区水资源承载力演变趋势以及影响该地区水资源承载力的主要因素.结果表明:1)赣州市水资源综合承载力较高,水资源还有进一步开发利用的空间;2)2009-2018年赣州市水资源承载力整体上呈上升趋势,但上升幅度不大,呈现小幅波动状态,其中GDP、工业用水量以及农业用水量对赣州市水资源承载力的具有显著影响;3)赣州市水资源较丰富,但由于时空分配不均,水资源配置体系也不够完善,且供水的基础设施比较薄弱,所以水资源的开发利用程度比较低.该研究结果可为当地水资源的可持续利用提供决策参考和依据.

Dynamic Assessment on Water Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation of Ganzhou City based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

Rational utilization of water resources is very important for the sustainable development of economics and society.In this paper,based on the construction of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,seven indicators,such as annual precipitation,per capita water resources,water utilization rate,water consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP,water consumption per 10000 yuan of industrial added value,water consumption per mu for farmland irrigation and ecological water consumption,are selected to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Ganzhou City in 2009-2018,and the evolution trend and influence of water resources carrying capacity in this area in the past decade are analyzed The results show that:1)The comprehensive water resources carrying capacity of Ganzhou City is relatively high,and there is still room for further development and utilization of water resources;2)The overall water resources carrying capacity of Ganzhou City in 2009-2018 shows an upward trend,but the upward range is not large,showing a small fluctuation state,GDP,industrial water consumption and agricultural water consumption have a significant impact on the water resources carrying capacity of Ganzhou City;3)Ganzhou City is abundant in water resources,but due to the uneven distribution of time and space,the allocation system of water resources is not perfect,and the infrastructure of water supply is relatively weak,so the development and utilization of water resources is relatively low.To sum up,with the development of social economy,it is imperative to take certain measures in order to improve the water resources carrying capacity of Ganzhou City.The results could provide alternative references for efficient and sustainable utilization of water resources.