| Abstract: | Little has been done by way of developing an objective technique for long-term forecasting of a utility load duration curve. This paper endeavours to rectify this situation by developing a methodology to provide forecasts of an economically optimal approximation to the load duration curve. A dynamic programming algorithm serves as the basis of the optimal approximations over a known horizon. These approximations are then forecast using time series analysis and an econometric model. The approach is implemented and the results are encouraging. |
