Inference for thinned point processes, with application to Cox processes

Given i.i.d. point processes N₁, N₂,…, let the observations be p-thinnings N′₁, N′₂,…, where p is a function from the underlying space E (a compact metric space) to 0, 1], whose interpretation is that a point of N_i at x is retained with probability p(x) and deleted with probability 1−p(x). Strongly consistent estimators of the thinning function p and the Laplace functional L_N(f) = Ee^−N(f)] of the N_i are constructed; associated “central limit” properties are given. Tests are presented, for the case when the N_i and N′_i are both observable, of the hypothesis that the N′_i are p-thinnings of the N_i. State estimation techniques are developed for the case where the N_i are Cox processes directed by unobservable random measures M_i; these techniques yield minimum mean-squared error estimators, based on observation of only the thinned processes N′_i of the N_i and the directing measures M_i. Limit theorems for empirical Laplace functionals of point processes are given.