Outranking under uncertainty using scenarios |
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Authors: | Ian N. Durbach |
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Affiliation: | Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa |
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Abstract: | This paper considers the use of scenarios to treat uncertain attribute evaluations in the outranking methods. The scenario-based approach allows the decision maker to think deterministically about the problem by attaching causal links to a small number of potential outcomes, instead of using probability distributions. The scenario approach can be expressed as a simplified version of the comprehensive but practically complex “distributive” outranking method of d’Avignon and Vincke. Using a scenario approach has distinct practical advantages, but also presents the inherent danger that meaningful information is ignored. The extent of this danger is assessed using a simulation experiment, where it is found to be of a magnitude that is non-trivial but still potentially acceptable for certain decision contexts. |
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Keywords: | Decision analysis Multi-criteria Outranking Uncertainty Scenarios |
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