Systemic risk elicitation: Using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks |
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Authors: | Fran Ackermann Susan Howick John Quigley Lesley Walls Tom Houghton |
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Institution: | 1. Curtin Business School, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987 Perth, Western Australia 6845, Australia;2. Management Science Department, Strathclyde Business School, 40 George Street, Glasgow, Scotland G1 1QE, United Kingdom |
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Abstract: | As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process helps managers to develop a comprehensive appreciation of risks and gain an understanding of the impact of the interactions between these risks through explicitly engaging a wide stakeholder base using a group support system and causal mapping process. Using a real case the paper describes the modelling process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research. |
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Keywords: | Problem structuring Risk analysis Group decision making |
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