基于Leslie模型的中国人口发展预测与分析

以EXCEL为基础,拟合出2001-2005年来中国生育模式和女性死亡率的函数曲线,利用Leslie模型,预测出中国总人口将于2015年、2025年分别达到137772万人和140824万人,2018年2028年这一段是人口的一个小波峰值,2023年左右达到小峰值141024万人.老龄化程度进一步加快,到2025年全国65岁以上老年人口比重达17.2%数量达24201万人,在2041年左右65岁以上老龄人口比重达到一个高峰值26.0%,数量将达34358万人.2006年-2020年,20-29岁生育旺盛期妇女数量形成一个小高峰.

The Forecast and Analysis of the Development of Chinese Population in View of Leslie Pattern

On the base of EXCEL,the author plans to give out the function's curve of the birth ratio and the death ratio between 2001 and 2005,and forecasts the total population will be up to 1.378 billion in 2015 and 1.409 billion in 2025 by using Leslie pattern,it will be a little peak value of the population during 2020 and 2030,the population will come up to its peak value of 1.410 billion in 2023 or so.The level of aging further accelerates and the ratio of old population of over 65 will come up to 17.2%in 2025 and the number is 2.4 hundred million.In 2041 the ratio of old population of over 65 will reach a peak value of 26 %and the number is 3.43 hundred million.The population of child-bearing women between 20 and 29 forms a little peak during 2006 and 2020.