Fluctuations of empirical means at low temperature for finite Markov chains with rare transitions in the general case

Summary. The integrated autocovariance and autocorrelation time are essential tools to understand the dynamical behavior of a Markov chain. We study here these two objects for Markov chains with rare transitions with no reversibility assumption. We give upper bounds for the autocovariance and the integrated autocorrelation time, as well as exponential equivalents at low temperature. We also link their slowest modes with the underline energy landscape under mild assumptions. Our proofs will be based on large deviation estimates coming from the theory of Wentzell and Freidlin and others 4, 3, 12], and on coupling arguments (see 6] for a review on the coupling method). Received 5 August 1996 / In revised form: 6 August 1997