复杂网络上灾害蔓延动力学研究

针对关键生命线系统，如电网、供水网、供气网、交通网、通信网等的一些共性特征，建立一个普适性的灾害蔓延动力学模型. 这个模型考虑网络结点的自修复功能、灾害蔓延机制和内部随机噪声，并研究自修复因子、延迟时间因子和噪声强度三个重要特征参数对三种网络(随机网络、无标度网络和小世界网络)结点修复率和崩溃结点数的影响. 模拟结果与这些实际生命线系统的特征一致，表明所建立的模型可以有效地模拟生命线系统的灾害演化动力学.关键词：复杂网络生命线系统灾害蔓延

Dynamics of disaster spreading in complex networks

A general dynamical model for disaster spreading is established in this paper, aiming at some common characteristics of key lifeline systems such as power supply network, water supply network, gas supply network, traffic network and communications network, etc. This model considers self-healing function, disaster spreading mechanism and internal stochastic noise of nodes. And the effects of three key parameters,namely the self-healing factor, duration delay factor and noise intensity, on recovery rate and number of damaged nodes for three different network topologies, i.e. Erdos-Renyi network, scale-free network and small world network are investigated. Simulation results are consistent with the characteristics of these true lifeline systems, showing that the presented model can effectively model disaster evolving dynamics for lifeline systems.