Fission product ratios as treaty monitoring discriminants

The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is currently under construction. The IMS is intended for monitoring of nuclear explosions. The radionuclide part of the IMS monitors the atmosphere for short-lived radioisotopes indicative of a nuclear weapon test, and includes field collection and measurement stations, as well as laboratories to provide reanalysis of the most important samples and a quality control function. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Washington hosts the United States IMS laboratory, with the designation “RL16.” Since acute reactor containment failures and chronic reactor leakage may also produce similar isotopes, it is tempting to compute ratios of detected isotopes to determine the relevance of an event to the treaty or agreement in question. In this paper we will note several shortcomings of simple isotopic ratios: (1) fractionation of different chemical species, (2) difficulty in comparing isotopes within a single element, and (3) the effect of unknown decay times. While these shortcomings will be shown in the light of an aerosol sample, several of the problems extend to xenon isotopic ratios. Due to the difficulties listed above, considerable human expertise will be required to convert a simple mathematical isotope ratio into a criterion which will reliably categorize an event as ‘reactor’ or ‘weapon’.