我国货币乘数增长的数理分析和货币乘数预测

对货币乘数运动规律的认识以及货币乘数的预测直接关系到国家货币政策的制定.从货币乘数决定因素入手,结合实证观察和数理分析,从数学上严格证明了货币乘数趋势性增长的原因是总准备金率和通货比率的长期下降趋势,说明货币乘数的增长是金融工具创新和金融制度创新共同作用的结果.发现货币乘数的短期波动直接受基础货币的影响,依此建立的货币乘数预测方程,不仅提高了对货币乘数长期趋势性预测的准确性,而且较为准确地预测了货币乘数的季节波动性.因此,中央银行在制定金融规划的时候,应把基础货币变动对货币乘数的影响考虑在内,以更好地实现操作目标向中介目标的传导.

Mathematical Analysis and Forecast on Money Multiplier of China

Studying the movement of money multiplier and and forecasting its performance is crucial to monetary policy making. Starting from fundamantal factors of money multiplier, using empirical and mathematical methods, the paper shows that the long term descending trends of total reserve rate and currency rate are two determinant reasons for the rising trend of money multiplier, hence the rising of money multiplier is a combined result of financial instrument innovation and financial system innovation. The paper also finds that short term fluctuation of money multiplier is influenced by the change of base money. Adding the change of base money into the money multiplier forecasting model, improves the forecasting accuracies for both long term trend and seasonal fluctuations of money multiplier. Therefore, the central bank should take the change of base money into its consideration for forecasting money multiplier when the central bank engages in financial planning.