新疆水资源承载力综合评价研究

水资源已成为制约新疆发展的瓶颈因素。文章从水资源、经济、社会和生态四个子系统构建了新疆水资源承载力指标体系;运用层次分析法(AHP)和熵值法组合确定各指标权重值;采取熵值法测算了新疆水资源承载力的评价值,在此基础上将水资源子系统看作支持力指数,其它三个子系统看作压力指数,用压力指数除以支持力指数得到了新疆水资源承载力指数。研究结果表明2004~2012年新疆水资源承载力指数均大于1,处于超载状态,影响了新疆生态环境的健康发展。文章最后从优化产业结构、调整农作物种植格局等方面提出对策建议。

Research on the Carrying Capacity Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resources in Xinjiang Based on AHP and Entropy Method

The problem of water resources had become a bottleneck factor in leapfrog development of Xinjiang. This paper constructs index system of water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang from the water resources, eco-nomic, social and ecological four subsystem, meanwhile uses the analytic hierarchy process （ AHP ） and entropy value method to calculate the index weight value. This article takes the entropy value method estimates the value of bearing capacity of water resources in Xinjiang, and then regards water resources subsystem as the support force in？dex, the other three subsystems look upon the pressure indexes. We get the indexes of water resources carrying ca-pacity in Xinjiang With pressure index divided by the support force index. The results show that the indexes of bear-ing capacity of water resources in Xinjiang are greater than 1 from 2004 to 2012, in a state of overload, this directly affects the healthy development of ecological environment in Xinjiang. Finally, the paper forwards countermeasures and suggestions from the respects of optimizing the industrial structure, adjusting the crop planting structure and so on.