Dependence structure of the commodity and stock markets,and relevant multi-spread strategy |
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| Authors: | Min Jae Kim Sehyun Kim Yong Hwan Jo Soo Yong Kim |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Communication Sciences and Disorders, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA;2. Department of Psychology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA;3. Department of Linguistics, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA;4. Institute for Neuroscience, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA;5. Institute for Mental Health Research, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA;1. Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, PR China;2. Department of Information Systems, College of Business, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region |
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| Abstract: | Understanding the dependence structure between the commodity and stock markets is a crucial issue in constructing a portfolio. It can also help us to discover new opportunities to implement spread trading using multiple assets classified in the two different markets. This study analyzed the dependence structure of the commodity and stock markets using the random matrix theory technique and network analysis. Our results show that the stock and commodity markets must be handled as completely separated asset classes except for the oil and gold markets, so the performance enhancement of the mean-variance portfolio is significant as expected. In light of the fact that WTI 1 month futures and four oil-related stocks are strongly correlated, they were selected as basic ingredients to complement the multi-spread convergence trading strategy using a machine learning technique called the AdaBoost algorithm. The performance of this strategy for non-myopic investors, who can endure short-term loss, can be enhanced significantly on a risk measurement basis. |
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