A Model of Obsolescence of Organizational Rules

The phenomenon of obsolescence has found little attention in past research on organizational change. Most research on organizational change has instead been concerned with the opposite of obsolescence, that is, with mechanisms which render organizational structures increasingly persistent. However, everyday experience teaches that organizational structures become outdated as surrounding conditions shift. This article explores obsolescence by means of mathematical modeling and empirical analysis. Obsolescence is conceptualized as a result of flows of conditions in, out, and between two states: consistent conditions and inconsistent conditions. The model predicts that the obsoleteness curve rises with decreasing increments over time. This is tested with empirical data on organizational rule change. The results confirm the obsolescence model. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.