基于模糊集-证据理论-层次分析法的车辆运行风险评估

为研究车辆运行风险等级，通过模糊集理论和DS证据融合算法，研究不同因素在不同风险等级的概率隶属值，运用层次分析法计算不同因素对车辆运行风险系统的权重值，通过加权计算车辆运行综合因素发生不同等级风险的概率和综合风险值。通过对湖南省高速公路某一路段作为实例分析，研究表明：该路段整体车辆运行风险是中等等级风险。因此，模糊集-DS证据理论-AHP的方法对车辆运行风险评估是行之有效的。

Vehicle Operation Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Set- DS Evidence Theory-AHP

In order to study the risk level of vehicle operation, the fuzzy set theory and DS evidence fusion algorithm were used to study the probability membership values of different factors at different risk levels. The analytic hierarchy process was used to calculate the weight value of different factors to the vehicle operation risk system. Then the probability of different levels of risk and comprehensive risk value arising from the comprehensive factors of vehicle operation were calculated. In the case study, one typical freeway section in Hunan province was selected. The calculation results showed the vehicle on the study section is in medium-level risk. Therefore, the fuzzy set-DS evidence theory-AHP method is effective for vehicle operation risk assessment.