Estimating the lead-time demand distribution when the daily demand is non-normal and autocorrelated Hon-Shiang LAU |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Business, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China;2. Center for Collaborative Innovation on Port and Shipping Logistics Service System, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China;3. Ningbo Supply Chain Innovation Institute China, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China;4. Cluster of Operations Research in Logistics (CORAL), Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark;1. Department of Information, Logistics and Innovation, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. Department of Management, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy;3. Department of Electrical, Electronics and Information Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy |
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| Abstract: | This paper develops convenient formulas for estimating the probability distribution of lead time demand when the inventory item's daily demand follows a probability distribution of any arbitrary shape, and when simple univariate models can be found for the autocorrelated daily demand series. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the use of these formulas. The numerical results also indicate that significant error may be incurred when inventory decisions are made without proper consideration of the autocorrelations or the arbitrary distribution shapes of daily demands. |
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