灰色关联度多层次分析方法及在水电方案优化中的应用

本文根据灰色系统理论关联度原理,考虑到在水利、水电规划方案的评价中,其技术、经济指标众多且具有不同属性。为了反映这种属性,同时避免多指标权重难以确切分配这一弊端,本文首先按指标集的某些属性分类得到低层次子集,然后对每一子集进行关联度分析,进而对各方案对应子集之间关联度进行较高层次综合,以综合结果排序,并以此确定对应方案的优劣次序。最后,以某水电站正常高水位及相应装机容量的选择为例,采用灰色关联度多层次分析方法进行了方案的优选。本文首先提出了灰色关联度多层次分析方法。该方法层次分明、简便实用。它将对系统因素的关联分析应用到工程方案的评价中,大大拓宽了关联分析的应用领域。

MULTI-HIERARCHY ANALYTIC PROCESS OF GREY RELATIONAL GRADE AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE OPTIMIZATION OF SCHEMES OF HYDROELECTRIC STATION

In evaluating schemes of planning on water conservancy projects and hydroelectric stations, many technical and economic indexes with different attributes must be considered. For the purpose of reflecting the attributes and avoiding the trouble of distributing weight to every index, which is difficult generally, according to the principle of Relational Grade of Grey Systems Theory, this paper presents a new method called Multi-hierarchy Analytic process of Grey Relational Grade.The process can be described as below.First,structuring index subset in lower-level by classifing the attributes? second,computing the relational grade of every subset; third,synthesizing in higher-level the relative grade of corresponding subset of schemes, and then the arrange in the order of the schemes from excellence to inferiority can be given. Besides, author gives an example of selection of normal water level and installed capacity of a hydroelectric station, optimizing schemes by using the multi-hierarchy analytic process of grey relational grade.The process presented firstly in this paper has advantage of possessing clear levels and it is simple and practical. It brodens greatly the application area of relative analysis through applying relational analysis to factors of systems to the evaluating of project schemes.