Proper orthogonal decomposition and cluster weighted modeling for sensitivity analysis of sound propagation in the atmospheric surface layer

Outdoor sound propagation predictions are compromised by uncertainty and error in the atmosphere and terrain representations, and sometimes also by simplified or incorrect physics. A model's predictive power, i.e., its accurate representation of the sound propagation, cannot be assessed without first quantifying the ensemble sound pressure variability and sensitivity to uncertainties in the model's governing parameters. This paper describes fundamental steps toward this goal for a single-frequency point source. The atmospheric surface layer is represented through Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and the acoustic ground properties with a relaxation model. Sound propagation is predicted with the parabolic equation method. Governing parameters are modeled as independent random variables across physically reasonable ranges. Latin hypercube sampling and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) are employed in conjunction with cluster-weighted models to develop compact representations of the sound pressure random field. Full-field sensitivity of the sound pressure field is computed via the sensitivities of the POD mode coefficients to the system parameters. Ensemble statistics of the full-field sensitivities are computed to illustrate their relative importance at every down range location. The central role of sensitivity analysis in uncertainty quantification of outdoor sound propagation is discussed and pitfalls of sampling-based sensitivity analysis for outdoor sound propagation are described.