基于粗糙集与未确知模型的京津冀工业绿色发展的差异性与协调性分析

京津冀协同发展,工业绿色发展是重要突破口。本文基于绿色发展的内涵,参考四部委发布的《绿色发展评价指标体系》构建了涵盖工业资源利用、工业环境质量、工业环境治理、工业经济增长共4个二级指标16个三级指标的区域工业绿色发展测度指标体系,综合运用粗糙集理论与未确知模型约简指标、计算权重、设置分级标准,对京津冀工业绿色发展水平进行多指标综合测度;在此基础上构建耦合协调度模型测度其协调性。结果发现:(1)京津冀间工业绿色发展存在较大差异,京、津波动频繁,河北省上升趋势明显,均已达到中等以上水平;(2)京、津、冀工业绿色发展分别受工业环境治理、工业资源利用、工业环境质量的影响最为显著;(3)京津冀工业资源利用、工业环境治理及工业经济增长均处在濒临失调区,工业环境质量处在勉强协调区,工业绿色发展已达到优质协调区。因此,一方面京、津、冀工业绿色发展应分别聚焦工业环境治理、工业资源利用、工业环境质量精准施策;另一方面必须重视京津冀工业绿色协同发展。

Analysis of the Difference and Coordination of the Green Development of Jing-Jin-Ji's Industry Based on the Theory of Rough Set and Unascertained Measure

For the coordinated development among Jing-Jin-Ji, the green development of industry is the key breakthrough. This paper constructs the evaluating index system of regional green development of industry, including four criteria, namely, industrial resource utilization, industrial environmental quality, industrial environmental management, industrial economic growth, as well as 16 specific indices, based on the connotation of green development and referenced to The Green Development Index System of the four ministries. The theory of rough set and unascertained measure are used to reduce the index, calculate the weight of each index and set the grading standards, and the green development of Jing-Jin-Ji's industry is comprehensive measured by multi-indexes. Based on this, the coordination is quantified by constructing a coupling coordination degree model. The results show that: (1)There are great differences in the green development of Jing-Jin-Ji's industry. The fluctuation of Beijing and Tianjin is frequent,and Hebei province has an obvious rising trend, but all of them have reached the medium or higher level. (2)The green development of industry in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is affected most significantly by industrial environmental management, industrial resource utilization and industrial environmental quality. (3)Jing-Jin-Ji's industrial resource utilization, industrial environmental management and industrial economic growth and are in endangered area, industrial environmental quality is in reluctant coordination zone, and the green development of industry is in quality coordination zone. Therefore, on the one hand, the green development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei industry should focus on industrial environmental management, industrial resource utilization, industrial environmental quality, and must pay attention to the coordinated green development among Jing-Jin-Ji's industry.