考虑运营稳定性的内支线班轮航线网络规划模型

货主选择承运航线的影响因素,既包括挂靠港口的计划到港时间与单箱运价,还包括反映班轮运营稳定性的甩箱率与准班率。对此,文章将挂靠港口的航行与在港时间不确定引入研究,并对挂靠港口间的不确定性建立联系,基于航次仿真来计算各挂靠港的到港时间分布、船舶的航次最大载箱量分布。以班轮航线的甩箱率与准班率限制、内支线最大船型与最长往返时间为约束,在优化内支线航线网络结构的同时,计算航线适配船型、班期密度及挂靠港计划到港时间。针对所构建的带不确定参数的NP难问题,文章设计了基于模拟仿真的智能优化算法,通过方案仿真技术来处理输入模型的众分布函数,借助智能优化原理从大范围解空间内寻找满意方案。文末对船舶航次仿真与网络规划模型的有效性进行了验证,算例分析表明:内支线班轮航线网络的货主选择比例达64%,且不论货主更偏好运输时间或价格,航线方案皆能贴近货主偏好。

Feeder Liner Network Design Model Considering Schedule Reliability

The influence factors of route choice not only include the arrival time and container freight, but also include the cargo rejection rate and arrival on-time rate for reliability evaluation. As for this, the uncertainties of port time and sail time have been introduced into our study, the correlation of each port of call also included. Based on the voyage simulation, we calculate the arrival time distribution at each port of call and the maximum capacity distribution in each voyage trip. With the constraints of cargo rejection and arrival on-time limit, maximum ship capacity and longest round-trip time, we optimize the route network structure, the optimal ship capacity, service frequency and committed arrival time simultaneously. Aimed at our NP-hard problem with uncertain parameters, one simulation-based intelligent optimization algorithm has been proposed. In this algorithm, the scheme simulation technology is used to deal with the multiple distribution functions, and the intelligent optimization theory is used for searching the satisfied scheme. Finally, the effectiveness of voyage simulation and our model have been verified, which show: the route choice probability of designed liner network has reached 64%; whether the choice-preference is transportation time or fee, it can be satisfied by our design scheme.