基于风险厌恶的下游供应链转运问题研究

当需求面临较大不确定性并且供货周期很长的情况下，转运策略成为提高供应链效率的重要解决方案。本文以条件风险价值（Conditional Value—at—Risk，简称CVaR）为风险度量准则，定量地研究了集中决策下的两级供应链系统的转运问题。我们得出了下游批发商的最优订货决策主要依赖于需求分布、单位缺货成本和风险厌恶程度等因素的一般性结论，并得出了均衡最优订货组合所需要满足的条件，重点分析了当需求基于均匀分布时，单位缺货成本和风险厌恶程度对最优订货组合的影响。

Risk Aversion in Two-location Transshipment Decision Making

When one seller has surplus stock and another is stock-out,it may be desirable to transport the surplus stock from the former to the latter. Thus,trannsshipment becomes an effective tool to improve the supply chain coordination. This paper,in a two-echelon supply chain system framework,we adopt the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) method to study the local sellers' optimal ordering decisions consistent with the joint-profit maximization,and find that the optimal ordering quantities mainly depend on the demand distribution,the degree of risk aversion and the lost sale penalty.The condition of optimal ordering quantity is obtained. At last,the influence of the lost sale penalty and the degree of risk aversion to the optimal ordering decision is illustrated in the condition of a uniform demand distribution.