基于决策者风险偏好大数据分析的大群体应急决策方法

针对重大突发事件应急决策大群体成员的风险偏好复杂难测问题,提出了一种新的基于决策者风险偏好大数据分析的大群体应急决策方法。首先专家群体对突发事件进行快速响应,生成若干应急预案及其风险属性信息;其次,社会公众通过网络等渠道参与到应急决策中来并形成决策大群体,给出不同预案的偏好值;然后,利用证据推理算法得出公众对各预案的风险效用值,将预案风险效用值与预案偏好值加权组合,得到各个预案的大群体决策者的风险偏好值;最后,基于风险偏好值,利用大数据分析技术对大群体的风险偏好进行聚类识别,从中筛选出风险中立者组成新的应急决策群体,再次聚类得出应急决策群体的成员组成结构,以此为基础计算决策者权重和应急预案的最终效用值,得应急预案排序结果。最后通过算例分析验证了方法的有效性和可行性。

The large Group Emergency Decision Making Method Based onLarge Data Analysis of Risk Preference of Decision-makers

According to the complex and unpredictable risk-preference of emergency decision group members, a new large group emergency decision method based on large data analysis of risk preference of decision-makers is proposed in this paper. First, the expert group responds quickly to the emergency, and generates some contingency plans and their risk attributes information. Secondly, through the network and other channels the public participates in emergency decision-making and form a large group of decision-making, giving different preplans preference values. Then, this paper uses evidential reasoning algorithm to get the public's risk utility value for each plan, and combines the preplan risk utility value with the preplan preference value to get the risk preference of large group decision makers of each plan. Finally, based on the risk preference value, this paper uses the big data analysis technology to identify the risk preferences of large groups, and selects the risk neutral group to form a new emergency decision-making group. The structure of the members of the emergency decision group can be obtained by reclustering and on this basis, the decision maker's weight and the final utility value of the emergency plan are calculated, and thus the order results of emergency plan also are obtained. Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of the method are verified by an example analysis.