非常规油气资源开发投资决策优化模型研究

非常规油气资源作为最现实的可替代能源,对其进行勘探和开发对于降低日益加大的石油供需矛盾缺口和确保国家能源安全均具有重要的战略意义。然而,非常规油气资源勘探开发十分复杂,开发投资决策好坏已经成为制约其能否实现规模化和产业化的关键问题,科学投资决策问题已逐步成为石油企业高层管理者的主要职责。针对非常规油气资源开发投资的多阶段多目标决策优化难题,以可供开发区块的资源分配为重点研究对象,从解决不同区块投资规模入手,运用多阶段决策、多目标决策和不确定多属性方案优选的方法理论,通过剖析非常规油气开发投资决策过程及其复杂性特征,将开发投资决策过程进行形式化描述并在计算机中加以实现,从而得以实现开发投资决策方案的动态性调整。本项研究不仅有助于深化多目标动态优化决策理论的研究,还为解决非常规油气资源开发投资决策难题提供一种新的思路和方法。

Decision-making Optimization Models ofDevelopment Investment in Unconventional Oil and Gas

Unconventional oil resources, the most feasible substitute energy, may redraw the world oil map and are being regarded as one of the best investment opportunities by most of oil companies. However, extremely complexities, high-risk venture, and significant uncertainties pervade the overall exploration and development process compared to conventional oil. This paper focuses on investment decision to optimize objectives of unconventional oil development. A multi-stage and multi-objective decision making model is set up to explore the most satisfied solution which makes trade-off among several conflicting objectives. The paper is organized as follows: Firstly, the strategic role of unconventional oil is shown and the related researches on this paper are analyzed. Secondly, a problem to be solved is stated and the investment decision-making process is analyzed to be multistage and multi-objective. Thirdly, the mathematical models are developed based on the dynamic programming, fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making methods, and multiple objective optimization approaches, and the algorithm is given in section 2.2. Fourthly, a numerical example is presented to apply the model to deal with oil sands development for an oil company. The result demonstrates that the model is effective and efficient to provide a novel and important approach to explore the strategic decision problem of unconventional oil exploration and development.