北京城市水资源供需系统研究

在研究北京市水资源供需现状的基础上,采用系统动力学方法构建了城市水资源供需模型.利用系统思考中学习型组织的信息反馈回路模式,引入基于可持续发展系统生存回路的水资源供需平衡指标,采用反映供需关系紧张的水供需一次、二次平衡作为衡量地区水危机的变量.按照人口增长与人均综合用水定额不同组合下的城市水需求总量,得到未来北京市水资源供需平衡变化的四种情境,通过动态模拟,分析不同情况下满足水需求的供应方案.结果显示,北京市现有的水资源条件与城市发展需水要求还有较大距离,应在挖掘本地水资源的基础上,依靠南水北调工程等境外调水,解决地区缺水的矛盾.

Analysis on Beijing's Urban Water Resource Demand-Supply System

Based on the present situation of water resource demand-supply in the city of Beijing,an urban water resource demand-supply system model was built using System dynamics.Using the information feedback loops pattern of learning organization in system thinking,water demand-supply monitoring indicators based on viability loop for sustainable development were introduced,including water demand-supply first and second balance as variables indicating district water danger which reflected tight relationship between demand and supply.Four different scenario of Beijing's water resource demand-supply were suggested according to different combination of population and annual per-capita water consumption, and corresponding water supply scheme were got through dynamic simulation.The results turned out that great gap between water consumption for city development and present water resource condition.To solve the contradiction of district water scarcity,not only local water resource must be explored at maximum efforts,but also water from outside like South-to-North Water Transfer Project should be relied on.