我国低碳经济发展机制的系统动力学建模

在分析了低碳经济系统复杂结构特征及动态反馈关系的基础上,建立了低碳经济系统动力学模型并进行了仿真模拟,研究表明:技术进步、产业调节政策对降低碳排放具有显著影响,提高能源效率是低碳发展的重要举措,制度建设是低碳发展的基础设施.从政策层面上,应通过调整能源结构,发展新能源和可再生能源;改变经济增长方式,调整产业结构,优先发展高新科技产业、服务业等第三产业;引导消费方式的改变,减少能源消耗,实现低碳发展.

System Dynamics Modeling on the Development Mechanism of the Low-carbon Economy in China

Based on the analysis of the relations between the complex low-carbon economy system and dynamic feedback,the low-carbon economy system dynamics modeling is established and simulation is carried out.Studies show that technical advancement and industrial adjustment policies have a significant impact on reducing carbon emissions.Improving energy efficiency is an important measure to low carbon development.System construction is a low-carbon development infrastructure.From the policy level,low-carbon development can be achieved through the following:the adjustment of energy structure and the development of new and renewable sources of energy;changes in economic growth,industrial restructuring, giving priority to the development of high-tech industry,services and tertiary industries, etc.;guiding the consumption patterns change and reducing energy consumption.