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Sequential change-point detection for mixing random sequences under composite hypotheses
Authors:Boris Brodsky  Boris Darkhovsky
Institution:(1) Central Institute for Mathematics and Economics RAS, 47, Nakhimovsky prospekt, 117418 Moscow, Russia;(2) Institute for Systems Analysis RAS, 9, prospekt 60-letya, Oktyabria, 117312 Moscow, Russia
Abstract:The problem of sequential detection of a change-point in the density function of one-dimensional distribution of observations from a mixing random sequence is considered when both before and after a change-point this density function belongs to a certain family of distributions, i.e. in the situation of composite hypotheses. A new quality criterion for change-point detection is proposed. The asymptotic a priori lower bound for this criterion is proved for wide class of methods of change-point detection. An asymptotically optimal method of change-point detection is proposed for which this lower bound is attained asymptotically. In particular, for the case of a simple hypothesis before a change-point, this method coincides with the generalized cumulative sums (CUSUM) method.
Keywords:Change-point problem  Composite hypotheses
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