A stochastic production planning model with a dynamic chance constraint

This paper deals with the optimal production planning for a single product over a finite horizon. The holding and production costs are assumed quadratic as in Holt, Modigliani, Muth and Simon (HMMS) 7] model. The cumulative demand is compound Poisson and a chance constraint is included to guarantee that the inventory level is positive with a probability of at least α at each time point. The resulting stochastic optimization problem is transformed into a deterministic optimal control problem with control variable and of the optimal solution is presented. The form of state variable inequality constraints. A discussion the optimal control (production rate) is obtained as follows: if there exists a time t₁ such that t₁?O, T]where T is the end of the planning period, then (i) produce nothing until t₁ and (ii) produce at a rate equal to the expected demand plus a ‘correction factor’ between t₁ and T. If t₁ is found to be greater than T, then the optimal decision is to produce nothing and always meet the demand from the inventory.