产业链视角下结构性有色金属价格冲击的行业传导效应

本文基于产业链的新视角,采用2006年8月至2016年4月的月度数据,选择具有代表性的6个工业行业以构建反映有色金属产业链内在联系的SVAR模型,将国际有色金属价格冲击分解为供给冲击、经济需求冲击以及预防性需求冲击,考察这三种结构性冲击对我国有色金属产业链各环节产出的影响效应,并通过分解上中下游行业的通胀来源,探究国际有色金属价格冲击的主要传导路径。结果显示:供给冲击和预防性需求冲击推动的有色金属价格上涨与工业行业产出呈现负相关关系,而经济需求冲击带来的有色金属价格上涨与工业行业产出呈现同向变化;三种结构性冲击对我国工业行业通胀的影响有两条传导路径,供给冲击与预防性需求冲击带来的国际有色金属价格上涨会产生成本推动型通胀,并且冲击作用沿着产业链的上游往下游进行正向传导,而经济需求冲击带来的国际有色金属价格上涨会产生需求拉动型通胀,并且冲击作用沿着产业链下游往上游进行逆向传导。

Research on the Industrial Transmission Effects of Structural Nonferrous Metal Price Shocks in the Perspective of Industry Chain

Based on the monthly data from August 2006 to April 2016, this paper chooses six representative Chinese industrial sectors to construct SVAR model from the perspective of nonferrous metal industry chain, and decomposes the nonferrous metal price shocks into the supply shocks, economic demand shocks and preventive demand shocks for estimating the effects of three structural shocks on the output in various links of the nonferrous metal industry chain. Then we investigate the main transmission pathways of international nonferrous metal price shocks through decomposing the sources of inflation pressure in nonferrous metal industry chain. The results show that the correlations between the industrial output and the rise of nonferrous metal price driven by the supply shocks and preventive demand shocks are negative, while the industrial output and the rise of nonferrous metal price caused by the economic demand shocks move in the same direction. The effects of three structural shocks on inflation in China’s industrial sector have two pathways. The rise of nonferrous metal price driven by the supply shocks and preventive demand shocks will generate cost-push inflation, with the impacts transmitting from upstream to downstream along the industry chain, whereas the rise of nonferrous metal price caused by the economic demand shocks will lead to demand-pull inflation, and the impact transmits from downstream to upstream along the industry chain.