大窑湾入境集装箱量及疫情集装箱量的模糊预测研究

作为国际海运和物流业的主要装载工具集装箱是入境统计以及检验检疫的主要对象.按特定规律统计的集装箱量时间序列既有一定的统计规律,又有较大的随机性.采用模糊时间序列方法,通过构造论域、模糊集以及提出多重计算规则,对2005年6月至2012年10月大窑湾入境集装箱量、疫情集装箱量,以及疫情与入境集装箱量比值时间序列进行了模糊分析与预测.预测值与实际值的比较说明了算法的有效性.预测值与实际值的平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分误差从整体上揭示了时间序列自身的模糊性和模型的合理性.

Fuzzy Forecasting Research on the Quantities of Inbound Containers and Epidemic Containers of Dayaowan

As the main loading tool of international shipping and logistics industry container is of main object for entry statistics and for inspecting and quarantining The time series of quantity of containers obtained according to certain law have certain statistics law and have great randomness.Based on the method of fuzzy time series,through constructing the universe of discourse,defining the fuzzy sets on the universe of discourse and giving the multiple computational rules,the quantity of inbound container,the quantity of epidemic container and the ratio of the quantity of epidemic container to the quantity of inbound container of Dayaowan from June 2005 to October 2012 are analyzed and forecast in the paper.The comparison from predictive values to the actual values show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.The mean absolute error and the mean absolute percentage error from predictive value to the actual value reveal the fuzziness of the time series themselves and the rationality of the proposed model integrally.