GM(1,N)与GM(0,N)模型在能源消费碳排放预测中的比较研究

近年来,减少碳排放已成为缔约国家社会经济发展和生产经营活动的重要目标之一,研究并使用科学的方法对我国未来碳排放进行分析与预测对我国应对气候变化政策的制定具有重要意义.拟将GM(1,N)和GM(0,N)模型用于能源消费碳排放量的预测,建立能源消费碳排放量的多因素灰色预测模型,并对GM(1,N)和GM(0,N)模型预测能源消费碳排放量的精度进行了检验和对比分析.结果表明:在对四川省能源消费碳排放预测中,GM(0,N)具有更高的预测精度和可靠性.

GM(1,N) and GM(0,N) Model to Predict the Energy Consumption of Carbon Emissions

In recent years,reducing carbon emissions has become one of the important goals of socio-economic development of the Contracting States and production activities,and the use of scientific methods to research the future of China's carbon emissions and forecast on China's response to the development of climate changing policies is important.This article intends to apply GM(1,AT) and GM(0,N) model to forecast energy consumption of carbon emissions,and establish multi-factor gray forecasting model,test and comparatively analyse the accuracy of predictions by using GM(1,N) and GM(0,N) model.