| 中国旱涝极端事件前兆信号及可预测性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张璐,章大全,封国林.中国旱涝极端事件前兆信号及可预测性研究[J].物理学报,2010,59(8):5896-5903. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张璐 章大全 封国林 |
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| 作者单位： | (1)北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875; 国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081; (2)兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000; (3)兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000; 北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目(批准号:40930592,40875040),国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2006CB400503),国家科技支撑计划(批准号:2007BAC29B01),公益性行业(气象)科研专项(批准号:GYHY200806005)资助的课题. |
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| 摘 要： | 基于百分位,研究了Lorenz系统极端事件的前兆信号分布特征及可预测性;利用前兆信号及接收器算子特征曲线(receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC曲线)对中国旱涝极端事件可预测性进行研究,得到了极端事件的可预测效果与序列的自相关性、极端事件的极端程度之间的关系.研究表明,无论是Lorenz系统分量序列还是Palmer干旱指数序列(Palmer drought severity index, PDSI),存在极端事件的可预测性随极端程度增强而增加的现象.同时对各区域极端旱涝事件前兆信号及可预测性进行分析,为中国旱涝极端事件的预测提供一定科学依据.
关键词：
极端事件
前兆信号
可预测性
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| 关 键 词： | 极端事件 前兆信号 可预测性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-09-27 |
Analysis of precursors and predictability of PDSI extremes in China |
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| Zhang Lu,Zhang Da-Quan,Feng Guo-Lin.Analysis of precursors and predictability of PDSI extremes in China[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2010,59(8):5896-5903. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Lu Zhang Da-Quan Feng Guo-Lin |
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| Institution: | College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Clim |
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| Abstract: | We investigate precursors and predictability of extreme events of Lorenz system with different percentile. The precursors and predictability of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extremes in China are analyzed, and obtained how the quality of the prediction depends on the size of the extreme events and on the correlation strength. Results indicate that for extreme events of Lorenz system and PDSI series, the stronger the extreme, the higher the predictablility. Moreover, we analyzed precursors and predictability of eight regions in China and provide some due scientific basis for flood and drought predictions. |
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| Keywords: | extreme events precursors predictability |
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