First passage time for some stationary processes

For a 1-dependent stationary sequence {X_n} we first show that if u satisfies p₁=p₁(u)=P(X₁>u)0.025 and n>3 is such that 88np₁³1, then

P{max(X₁,…,X_n)u}=ν·μⁿ+O{p₁³(88n(1+124np₁³)+561)}, n>3,

where

ν=1−p₂+2p₃−3p₄+p₁²+6p₂²−6p₁p₂,μ=(1+p₁−p₂+p₃−p₄+2p₁²+3p₂²−5p₁p₂)⁻¹

with

p_k=p_k(u)=P{min(X₁,…,X_k)>u}, k1

and

|O(x)||x|.

From this result we deduce, for a stationary T-dependent process with a.s. continuous path {Y_s}, a similar, in terms of P{max_0skTY_s<u}, k=1,2 formula for P{max_0stY_su}, t>3T and apply this formula to the process Y_s=W(s+1)−W(s), s0, where {W(s)} is the Wiener process. We then obtain numerical estimations of the above probabilities.