| 基于随机模拟和模糊聚类的水文干旱特性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱廷举,胡和平.基于随机模拟和模糊聚类的水文干旱特性分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2001,41(8):103-106. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱廷举 胡和平 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学水利水电工程系, |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 ( G19990 436 0 7)，教育部高等学校骨干教师支持计划 ( 1999) |
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| 摘 要： | 为进一步探讨严重水文干旱事件的发生规律和确定黄河上中游地区连续枯水段的发生概率和重现期 ,采用多站季节性随机径流模型生成长序列人工径流 ,利用模糊聚类分析方法对人工径流序列中的枯水年份进行了识别 ,最后以黄河中游测站为例 ,通过对径流序列中不同长度连续枯水段出现情况的统计分析确定了几种条件下严重水文干旱的发生概率和重现期。多站季节性模型和模糊聚类分析相结合进行水文干旱特性分析 ,丰富了现有的研究方法 ,所得研究结论对黄河流域水资源规划和干旱年份的水资源调度和风险管理具有参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 水文干旱 随机径流模型 模糊聚类 黄河 连续枯水段 重现期 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0054(2001)08-0103-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年10月17 |
Drought analysis based on stochastic simulation and fuzzy classification |
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| ZHU Tingju,HU Heping.Drought analysis based on stochastic simulation and fuzzy classification[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2001,41(8):103-106. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Tingju HU Heping |
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| Abstract: | The probability and average recurrence period of extreme droughts in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River were analyzed using a multivariate seasonal synthetic streamflow model to generate long series runoff, in which the drought years were identified with a fuzzy mathematical method. The probability and average recurrence period of extreme droughts were then analyzed statistically for continuous drought periods with various lengths. The combination of the multivariate seasonal model and the fuzzy mathematical method provides better results, which will facilitate Yellow River basin water resources planning, water resources dispatching and risk management in drought years. |
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| Keywords: | hydrologic drought stochastic simulation fuzzy classification Yellow River continuous drought periods average recurrence period |
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