河南栾川县区域群发性泥石流临界雨量分析

栾川县历史上曾多次暴发区域群发性泥石流,以其为研究对象,选择前5日前期降雨量、当日降雨量、24 h最大降雨量、2 h最大降雨量、前72 h直接降雨量和前120 h直接降雨量为特征参数,根据它们的不同组合对栾川县区域群发性泥石流临界雨量进行分析,确定了泥石流预警的临界雨量基准线。分析结果表明2 h最大降雨量为研究区泥石流预报的重要指标,在不考虑前期雨量的情况下,2 h临界雨量为14 mm,研究结论可为当地泥石流防灾减灾提供参考。

Analysis of the critical rainfall for regional group-occurring debris flows in Luanchuan County of Henan

In history, regional group-occurring debris flows repeatedly occurred in Luanchuan county, therefore this paper took Luanchuan county as the research object, chose early five days indirect rainfall, daily rainfall, 24h maximum rainfall, 2h maximum rainfall, early 72h direct rainfall and early 120h direct rainfall as characteristics parameters, and analyzed the critical rainfall of regional group-occurring debris flows in Luanchuan County based on different combinations of the characteristics parameters. Then, the critical rainfall datum lines are determined for prediction of debris flows. Analysis results show that the 2h maximum rainfall is an important index for prediction of debris flows in the study area, and without considering the early rainfall, the critical 2h rainfall is 14 mm. The research results can provide references for the prevention and mitigation of debris flow disasters.