| 灰色-马尔柯夫链预测优化模型——以江苏省物流需求预测为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 何有世,李明辉. 灰色-马尔柯夫链预测优化模型——以江苏省物流需求预测为例[J]. 经济数学, 2011, 0(3): 97-101 |
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| 作者姓名： | 何有世 李明辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏大学工商管理学院;江苏大学财经学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 讨论了现有灰色-马尔柯夫链预测方法的基本思路,针对该思路的不足之处提出了合理刻画预测模型精度特征的两个精度指标——均值指标和稳定性指标,并据此建立了灰色-马尔柯夫链预测优化模型,最终以江苏省物流需求为例,对该模型进行了实例验证和应用.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色-马尔柯夫链预测 优化模型 江苏省 物流需求 |
The Grey-Markov Forecasting Optimization Model:the Case of Logistics Demand Prediction of Jiangsu Province |
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| HE You -shi,LI Ming -hui. The Grey-Markov Forecasting Optimization Model:the Case of Logistics Demand Prediction of Jiangsu Province[J]. Mathematics in Economics, 2011, 0(3): 97-101 |
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| Authors: | HE You -shi LI Ming -hui |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Business Administration,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang,Jiangsu 212013,China;(2.College of Finance and Economics,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang,Jiangsu 212013,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper discussed the basic ideas of current gray-markov model. The disadvantages of the basic ideas were first analyzed, and then we proposed two precision indexes--mean index and stability index, which can characterize the reason- able accuracy of prediction model features. Based on the two precision indexes, a gray-Markov forecasting optimization model was established. Finally, this prediction model was tested and verified by the example of logistics demand of Jiangsu province. |
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| Keywords: | grey-Markov forecasting optimization model Jiangsu province logistics demand |
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