从扫描统计量角度观察我国连续暖冬现象

从1986年以来我国连续出现全国性暖冬,引起了国内外学者的广泛关注."暖冬"不仅直接影响到生态环境和生态平衡等以及人类的生产与日常活动,还会对政治、经济产生重大的影响,也越来越受到人们的普遍关注。本文引入扫描统计量,对暖冬连续出现的概率进行计算,以分析其异常程度。分析结果表明,无论按照过去对暖冬划分的旧标准还是2002年起使用的新标准,我国连续出现的暖冬现象都属于显著异常的,需要引起气候环境工作者和公众的重视和警觉。

Observation on Warmer Winter Phenomena of China from the Perspective of Scan Statistics

From 1986 till now, national-wide warmer winters occur continuously, which attracts close at- tention extensively from in and abroad. Warmer winter does not only influent the ecological environment and balance, and human beings' production and daily activities, but also has great impact on politics and economics, for which there are more and more attention paid on it. This paper, introduces Scan Statistics, calculates the probability of continuous warmer winters to analyze its abnormity degree. The result shows that according to both the old and new criteria on defining warmer winter, the phenomena of continuous warmer winters appear in China are remarkable abnormal, and calls for recognition and watchfulness.