ANN技术在企业经济预测与预警中的应用研究

提出了适合于上市公司而建立的基于ANN技术的企业经济综合指标短期预警系统的构建方案.该系统是一个人机相结合的反馈式预警系统,包括危机判定、财务指标预测、预警知识获取和报警四个子系统.该系统将定性分析与定量分析结合起来,既突出人的作用,又充分发挥了人工神经网络的在预测方面的技术,使得两者有机的结合在一起.其中,预警指标预测子系统体现了ANN技术在时间序列预测方面的应用,而知识获取子系统和报警子系统则体现了ANN技术在回归预测方面的应用,两者都有很好的理论基础.同时,该系统建立的程序比较规范,具有普适性,易于操作,比较容易实现.最后,还对该系统进行了实证模拟分析,并与专家意见结果进行了对比,验证了其有效性.

The Study on the Application of Artificial Neural Network to the Enterprise's Economy Forecasting and Prewarning

This text put forward the construction scheme of forecasting and warning system in enterprise short-term economic based on ANN technology which is suitet to the listed company. This system is a type of man-machine feedback system which includs 4 subsystem of crisis judging,financial index predicting,early warning knowledge acquisiting and reporting.This system conhines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis together,which not only stresses man's function,but also gives full play to the technology in predicting of the artificial neural network.Among them,the economic index predicting subsystem can reflected the application of ANN technology in time array predicting.The knowledge acquisition subsystem and warning subsystem can the reflect the application of ANN technology in regression predicting.These two subsystem have a very good theoretical foundation.Meanwhile,the procedure that should be set up systematically is more normal,general and right,easy to operate,and easier to be realized.At last,this text also give analysis of a real example simulation about this system, and then verify its validity through comparing with the experts opinions.