公交车单车事故严重程度影响因素分析

为研究公交车单车正面碰撞事故严重程度的影响因素,选取英国2014-2018年速度不高于30mph/h的公交车在城市交叉口范围内发生正面碰撞的数据,建立离散选择模型—有序logit模型,从公交车驾驶员特征、车辆特征、道路特征、环境特征和事故特征方面分析影响致命事故、严重事故和轻伤事故的因素。分析结果表明：在90%的置信水平下,事故严重程度与驾驶员性别、年龄、车辆意图、车龄、车辆状态、车辆是否离开车行道、事故是否发生在工作日、路面情况、是否信号控制、光线情况、警察是否在事故现场、事故发生位置、碰撞设施这些因素显著相关。研究结果可使交通管理者采取相应的措施降低公交车事故严重程度。

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Single-vehicle Bus Accident Severity

To explore factors affecting the severity of single-vehicle bus occurring head-on collision, the UK data about buses with the speed of no more than 30 mph/h occurring head-on collision between 2014 and 2018 within the scope of urban intersections are selected. The discrete choice model-ordered Logit model is established to analyze the factors affecting fatal accidents, serious accidents and minor accidents from the aspects of driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, road characteristics, environmental characteristics and accident characteristics. Analysis results show that under the confidence level of 90%, these fators which are gender of driver, age of driver, vehicle manoeuvre, vehicle age, vehicle status, whether buses leave carriageway, workday, road surface conditions, sigmal control, light conditions, whether the police are on the scene, accident location, collision facility, are significantly correlated with accident severity. The results can enable traffic managers to take appropriate strategies to reduce the severity of single-vehicle bus accidents.