Modelling match outcomes and decision support for setting a final innings target in test cricket

^** E-mail: p.a.scarf{at}salford.ac.uk This paper considers the problem of timing the declaration ofthe third innings in test cricket. Data on the outcomes of recenttest matches are analysed in order to develop simple decisionsupport tools. The first of these tools presents match outcomeprobabilities given the position of the match at a potentialdeclaration point. These probabilities are determined usinga multinomial logistic regression model that is fitted to thetest match data. This idea is then extended to consider progresstowards a declaration—match outcome probabilities areconsidered as a function of target aimed for and run-rate. Thedecision tools have been implemented on a spreadsheet and examplecalculations are presented. The modelling described has thepotential for practical use in test matches.