中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究:基于对北美自贸区、欧盟、东盟投资的比较分析

中国对外贸易发展成熟、国际地位显著,但从长期看,其边际收益呈现递减趋势.而对外直接投资虽规模较小,且尚在起步阶段,但其发展速度快、市场潜力巨大.在拓展Anderson和Wincoop模型基础上,理论分析了对外直接投资与贸易之间的关系.然后通过建立计量模型,利用1995-2011年面板数据进行固定模型分析.由于中国对外直接投资的贸易效应存在明显的区域性,以北美自贸区、欧盟和东盟作为研究对象,实证检验了中国对外直接投资与贸易的关系,旨在考察中国对三种不同类型区域一体化组织投资的贸易效应差异.研究结果表明,从长期看,中国对北美自由贸易区、欧盟和东盟投资均具有明显的贸易创造效应.这种贸易创造效应的大小依次是东盟欧盟北美自贸区.

Study on China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment to Trade Effects Based on the Analysis of NAFTA,EU,ASEAN

China's foreign trade has a significant status in the world,but in the long term,the trend of its marginal returns tends to be diminishing.At the same time,the scale of outward FDI in China was in an initial stage and still small,however,it develops fast and market potential is huge.In the paper,we analyze the relationship between China's outward FDI and its exports to NAFTA,EU,ASEAN based on the theory of Anderson and Wincoop using the 1995-2011 panel data with the econometric model.Due to regional disparity of trade effects,the article involves NAFTA,ASEAN and EU as associate objects in order to investigate regional disparity of absorbing China's FDI in expanding China's export.The results show that in the long run,China's outward FDI to NAFTA,EU and ASEAN make an obvious trade creation effects,which was ranked in the order of ASEAN,EU and NAFTA.